December 15, 2016

Market Vs. Book Vs. Liquidation Vs. Salvage

Market value is generally the highest value of assets, though it could be lower than book value if the value of the assets has gone down in value due to market demand rather than business use. The book value is the value of the asset as listed on the balance sheet. The balance sheet lists assets at the historical cost, so the value of assets may be higher or lower than market prices. In an economic environment with rising prices, the book value of assets is lower than the market value. The liquidation value is the expected value of the asset once it has been liquidated or sold, presumably at a loss to historical cost. Finally, the salvage value is the value given to an asset at the end of its useful life; in other words, this is the scrap value.

Read more: Book Value Definition | Investopedia
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August 9, 2016

Belajar Bahasa Baru - R

Sudah lama gak ngeblog karena terlalu sibuk dengan kerjaan dan saham ...

kayaknya passion gw emang di dua ini coding dan saham (plus foto2 kalo boleh diitung)

Dan ternyata ada satu bahasa yg bisa mencakup keduanya, nama bahasanya R.

So, setelah familiar dengan C, dan Cobol, sekarang belajar R ... bener-bener ya, bahasanya aneh-aneh semua.

Apa hebatnya R ?

Humm... belum bisa bicara banyak karena baru seminggu belajar (itu jg malam2 sebelum tidur), tapi kalo diliat2 bahasa ini di desain untuk handle array of data, atau data semacam table gitu.

Dan hebatnya bisa langsung ploting ke grafik. Karena terbiasa dengan bahasa yg gak keluar grafiknya sama sekali, pertama liat dia bisa plot grafik dengan mudahnya, saya terkesima sekali... (ndeso yak).

So, kita bisa bikin berbagai macam grafik saham, asal tau cara perhitungannya :)

Selain itu, R ini bisa digunakan untuk backtrack performa algoritma trading...

Meskipun sampai skrg blm punya algoritma trading beneran (karena selama ini cuma pake Feeling Analysis), tapi suatu saat kemungkinan diperlukan.. kalo metode pemilihan saham saya bisa dibuat algoritmanya.. hehe

Untuk sample hasil backtrack sample plot mungkin lain kali saya coba upload :)

May 23, 2016

Beating the Street - Peter Lynch

The following is a cut and paste of a discussion of Peter Principles, "Beating the Street" and Lynch's 25 Investing Principles.  

Beating the Street Peter Lynch

  • When the operas outnumber the football games three to zero, you know there is something wrong with your life.
  • Gentlemen who prefer bonds don't know what they are missing.
  • Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon.
  • You can't see the future through a rearview mirror.
  • There's no point paying Yo-Yo Ma to play a radio.
  • As long as you're picking a fund, you might as well pick a good one.
  • The extravagance of any corporate office is directly proportional to management's reluctance to reward shareholders.
  • When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yield of the S&P 500 by 6 percent or more, sell your stocks and buy bonds.
  • Not all common stocks are equally common.
  • Never look back when you're driving on the autobahn.
  • The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.
  • A sure cure for taking a stock for granted is a big drop in the price.
  • Never bet on comeback while they're playing "Taps".
  • If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock.
  • When insiders are buying, it's a good sign - unless they happen to be New England bankers.
  • In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.
  • All else being equal, invest in the company with the fewest colour photographs in the annual report.
  • When even the analysts are bored, it's time to start buying.
  • Unless you're a short seller or a poet looking for a wealthy spouse, it never pays to be pessimistic.
  • Corporations, like people, change their names for one of two reasons: either they've gotten married, or they've been involved in some fiasco that they hope the public will forget.
  • Whatever the Queen is selling, buy it.

  1. Investing is fun, exciting, and dangerous if you don't do any work.
  2. Your investor's edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It's something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.
  3. Over the past three decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.
  4. Behind every stock is a company, find out what it's doing.
  5. Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.
  6. You have to know what you own, and why you own it. "This baby is a cinch to go up!" doesn't count.
  7. Long shots almost always miss the mark.
  8. Owning stocks is like having children - don't get involved with more than you can handle. The part-time stockpicker probably has time to follow 8-12 companies, and to buy and sell shares as conditions warrant. There don't have to be more than 5 companies in the portfolio at any time.
  9. If you can't find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money into the bank until you discover some.
  10. Never invest in a company without understanding its finances. The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets. Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk your money on it.
  11. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold, nongrowth industries are consistent big winners.
  12. With small companies, your better off to wait until they turn a profit before you invest.
  13. If you're thinking about investing in a troubled industry, buy the companies with staying power. Also, wait for the industry to show signs of revival. Buggy whips and radio tubes were troubled industries that never came back.
  14. If you invest $1,000 in a stock, all you can lose is $1,000, but you stand to gain $10,000 or even $50,000 over time if you're patient. The average person can concentrate on a few good companies, while the fund manager is forced to diversify. By owning too many stocks, you lose this advantage of concentration. It only takes a handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.
  15. In every industry and every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professionals have discovered them.
  16. A stock-market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you're prepared, it can't hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.
  17. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.
  18. There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.
  19. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you've invested.
  20. If you study 10 companies, you'll find 1 for which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you'll find 5. There are always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market - companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street.
  21. If you don't study any companies, you'll have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
  22. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient - even if you missed Wal-Mart in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.
  23. If you have the stomach for stocks, but neither the time nor the inclination to do the homework, invest in equity mutual funds. Here, it's a good idea to diversify. You should own a few different kinds of funds, with managers who pursue different styles of investing: growth, value, small companies, large companies, etc. Investing in six of the same kind of fund is not diversification.
  24. The capital gains tax penalises investors who do too much switching from one mutual fund to another. If you've invested in one fund or several funds that have done well, don't abandon them capriciously. Stick with them.
  25. Among the major markets of the world, the U.S. market ranks eighth in total return over the past decade. You can take advantage of the faster-growing economies by investing some of your assets in an overseas fund with a good record.
  26. In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won't outperform the money left under the mattress.

Peter Lynch ran the Fidelity Magellan Fund for 13 years, during which time Magellan was the number one ranked general equity fund in America. His books One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street are filled with his accumulated wisdom and in Beating the Street he gives a fairly detailed account of how he did his analysis.
The first thing that will strike new investors as strange is that Lynch's methods are actually so simple that mostly an amateur could use them entirely unchanged and with the same results. Lynch does not use any gimmicky computer programs, either to pick stocks or optimise the portfolio for volatility. Each and every company invested in by Magellan was considered on its own individual merits, and the managers of Magellan generally did their very best to completely avoid investing in anything that consensus opinion from the average Wall Street analyst declared was a good thing.
Lynch sums up his points in Beating the Street with a number of humourous "Peter's Principles", which appear here. Do take the time to read Beating the Street in its entirety though, as he makes a number of very interesting points throughout.

Peter's Principle #1
This first point comes from the preface, where he is talking about how busy he was, regretting being unable to spend time with his family since he was too busy trying to keep current on a few thousand stocks. Although not really a hugely important point as far as this FAQ goes, I guess if I didn't put it here you'd wonder what it was if it was the only thing missing from the list!

Peter's Principle #2
This one gets a going over in this FAQ in the separate "Bonds vs Stocks" article, Lynch just pointed out that bonds are an inferior investment to shares.

Peter's Principle #3
A class of seventh graders at an American primary school did a social studies project on stocks, the kids had to do their own research and dig up stocks for a paper portfolio. They sent their picks to Lynch, who later invited them to a pizza dinner at the Fidelity executive dining room, illustrating their portfolio with little drawings representing each stock. Lynch just loved this because it illustrates the principle that you should only invest in what you understand, the kids portfolio consisted of toy manufacturers, makers of baseball swap cards, clothing manufacturers and outlets, Playboy Enterprises (a couple of boys chose that one), Coke, and other stocks of that ilk. With a portfolio notably lacking in glamorous technology ventures and entrepreneurial risk taking they went for solid stocks with excellent profits, their portfolio returned 69.6% against a background of a 26.08% gain in the S&P500 in 1990/91.

Peter's Principle #4
Chapter 2 of the book talks about "weekend worriers", those pundits that always have a thousand reasons why the economy is bad and it is not a good time to invest in stocks. He points out that even he is guilty of this, appearing on the prestigious Barren's panel on the state of the economy to prognosticate and outdo the other panelists on why the market is about to crash. He also notes that none of the people on the Barren's portfolio are anything less than the top experts on investment, managers of the biggest and best funds and all highly respected, obviously even with all the doom-saying they still find some time to invest. Lynch advocates looking at stocks for their own value, not to go in for top-down analysis in some futile attempt to predict the state of the economy and their effects on stock prices. The market crashes when stocks are way over valued, and doesn't usually crash again until stocks have become over valued again. His point comes down to the old saying, "buy in gloom, sell in boom". When the experts are bearish is the time to buy.

Peter's Principle #5
Bonds vs Bond funds, Lynch ponders why people invest in bond funds, with all their administrational fees, when any fool can go to a broker or the American Federal Reserve bank to buy a 3-year treasury note, or T-bill from $5000, and other notes for $1000. The returns on the direct investments are better than the managed funds because a T-bill is always a T-bill, there is nothing to manage or research. Bond funds are very popular in America, but Lynch really can't figure out why!

Peter's Principle #6
At the time Lynch wrote his book, there were more American mutual funds than there were listed companies! The majority of fund managers would rather be part of the Wall Street herd than do any serious research of their own. Despite the argument for a fund being that you are entrusting your money to a professional who will spend more time doing research than you ever could, the level of analysis in all but a minority of funds is very shallow, and tends to be the corporate equivalent of keeping up with the Joneses. Funds with big entry fees are not necessarily any better than funds without, the fund that comes out of nowhere and gets the top ranking one year is probably just highly leveraged in something that happened to do well that year, and will fail the next. In their quest to invest conservatively most managers buy stocks that have already been bought up to expensive levels, shunning investing in out-of-favour industries. Lynch gives a number of tips as to what to look for in a good fund, but his main point is that the majority of funds are duds. Often it takes as much research to find a good fund as it takes to find a good stock, perhaps more research since there are more funds than stocks.

Peter's Principle #7
Excellent companies are thrifty. They seek to maximise returns by running their operation efficiently and seeking to be the best at what they do. Companies that buy themselves glamorous skyscraper office towers with indoor waterfalls and gold plated toilet seats, award executives with fat salaries not linked to performance, corporate jets, massive advertising campaigns aimed purely at sprucing up the corporate image, changing a sensible old name to something flashy and techy and other such excesses are not companies you want to invest in. To Lynch, such behaviour indicates the management may well be far too concerned with self-aggrandisement rather than trying to maximise returns for shareholders. Some of the very best investments Lynch has made are cyclical companies in difficult industries that turn out to be the last man standing when all their rivals have gone broke, leaving the market all to them, and the credit goes to thrifty policies which ensure that these companies become the lowest cost competitors in the market.

Peter's Principle #8
Lynch recommends this as a kind of value-contrarian-safety type of strategy, making the claim that when this situation occurs you should enjoy the "risk-free" investment of bonds, they are either yielding exceptionally well or the stock market is over-valued. Either way they make more sense than stocks at that time, this is the only exception to Lynch's assertion that stocks are always better than bonds.

Peter's Principle #9
A direct attack on the efficient-market dart board method of stock picking. Lynch spends this chapter talking about asset allocations in Magellan, pointing out that while this fund, with more than one billion dollars invested was into over 1400 stocks at the time he was referring to, many of these were small investments, nice companies but too small for an organisation like Magellan to own much. Really good stocks are not that common, Lynch's favourite stocks made up substantially larger proportions of the portfolio than others, but the other stocks held were held because they were also great companies, just too small for $100 million purchase orders. Many of these smaller companies are totally ignored by most funds, who prefer to buy well known stocks rather than research something not well known. This leads to great opportunities for small investors, because it means that it is perfectly possible to find small stocks trading at very low valuations, often below book value. You won't find Newscorp trading at below book any time soon, but such purchases are quite easy in very small companies. Lynch doesn't so much think that funds ignore small stocks because of the inability to make large purchases, he puts this down to copy-cat fund managers not wanting to stick their necks out. Although a dreadful stock in many ways, no fund manager has ever been fired for buying IBM: it is said that IBM has "disappointed the market", not that the fund manager screwed up. I have read a few books recently that very sternly advocate the efficient market hypothesis, dart boards and all, if you want to cure yourself of such nonsense just look at the results of Magellan!

Peter's Principle #10
He's referring to the time he was doing a research trip in Europe and while traveling at 120mph (just shy of 200kmh) he noticed in his rear view mirror that some guy in a Mercedes was tailgaiting him about 3" from his rear bumper. I'm sure this incident has deep significance for investors, but I guess I'm too much of a philistine to see it.

Peter's Principle #11
Many stocks which later became major holdings started out as minor purchases by Magellan. Often it is unneccesary to run around looking for the perfect stock, you may already have it in your portfolio, so buy more! It goes back to principle number 9, the number of really brilliant companies is finite, so when you do have one it might be better to buy more than to go out to find something else.

Peter's Principle #12
Like many people who trade shares with great initial success, Lynch had attained something of a God complex thinking he was immune to the lumps and bumps of the market. He is referring to the shocks of 1978 and 1987, where big falls provided the necessary kick in the pants to remind him of who the real boss is. This point should be made to everyone who just got a Sanford account in the middle of the last bull market, sometimes good luck can mask bad skill.

Peter's Principle #13
For those that don't get it, "Taps" is the name of that bugle tune they play at military funerals. This point deals with the idea of buying something just because the share price has fallen. Carefully investigate each purchase as if it were a new stock, ignore the history if the situation has obviously changed. As Lynch says, there is no shame in losing money on a stock. Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on to a stock, or worse, to buy more of it, when the fundamentals are deteriorating.

Peter's Principle #14
One of Lynch's favourite stock picking techniques is to take his wife and kids shopping at a large shopping centre. There you can see for yourself what chains are doing well, before the annual report. Many shops that are starting out as franchises have not yet been noticed by the stock market, even if they are listed. To do this kind of research he'd give his daughters some pocket money and see where they spend it, which usually led him to a discount clothing store like the Gap (an American jeans store turned popular general clothing store), which was always packed with kids making big purchases. What better operation could there be than an extremely profitable store just going franchise that is about to expand all over the country? Lynch loves these stocks, retail operations that go absolutely wild after a few years listing producing what Lynch aptly names "Ten-Baggers" - stocks with a 1000% price increase or better! His kids also help him by telling him what drinks are popular these days, leading him often to some small operation making a niche range of products that gains similarly. Of course once he gets back to the office he always checks up on the PE ratio and debt levels, which is what stopped him investing in "The Body Shop", on a 40+ PE which was too rich for his tastes even with such rapid expansion. Clearly investing in this sort of thing beats buying some riverboat casino or speculative technology issue recomended by a generic Uncle Harry.

Peter's Principle #15
When management people make large purchases of their own stock with private funds, you know that the insiders feel the company is undervalued, or that something big is about to happen. The bankers comment refers to the silliness of the management of a number of Texas and New England banks who violated principle #13, buying substantial holdings almost right up to the day the banks closed their doors for good.

Peter's Principle #16
The name of this chapter is "Blossoms in the Desert", it is about Lynch's love affair with really good companies in really bad industries. The trouble wih investing in really good industries is that it attracts the attention of many others who want a piece of the action, hordes of players show up to take a piece of the pie, and even with the big profits of the industry the competition ends up so fierce that even people in the best industry can end up losing money to the lower cost competitors. As Yogi Berra once said about a famous Miami Beach restaurant, "It's so popular, nobody goes there any more.", exactly the point that Lynch is making. Instead Lynch really likes terrible industries, airlines, steel, tire retreads, can making, textile companies etc. He doesn't buy every stock of course, he looks for the one with the lowest operating costs. When times get hard most of their competitors will fold, leaving them with a huge market share in an industry no one wants any more, and since their costs are so low they often make a profit, even in the bad years. What then happens one day is the industry improves, leaving this very low cost producer with virtually no competition in a market that suddenly has the potential for explosive growth. Companies of this sort bear in mind principle #7, they are more likely to take investors across the road for a deli sandwich than entertain them on a wine and dine junket, with a corporate reception consisting of a black phone saying "pick me up" at the entrance to their factory, executives and staff who's pay is linked to corporate profits, non-membership of trade unions for the workers - and the workers like it that way since their pay is better with this company, employee award plaques on the walls instead of expensive art and a board room in the floating loft above the factory floor.
As an example of how great industries can mean very poor profits, look at airlines. Because of the poor profits made it has now dawned on many people that the airline industry is not a good one to invest in. This wasn't always the way people thought of it though, just when technology was picking up and the first true "Jumbo Jets" were appearing, it looked like a great time to invest in airlines. Sure enough, passenger numbers have grown substantially, and will no doubt continue to do so. Airlines should have been the greatest of growth stocks, and yet they have stagnated. With the huge growth in ticket sales there have been many new airlines to take a piece of that, along with the increasing cost of fuel this competition has been ruinous. As a result, air travel is considered to be a rotten industry, the reputation comes not from the business itself but from the competition.

Peter's Principle #17
Still on austere companies that come to dominate lousey industries, Lynch has nothing but praise for companies that don't waste money. This extends to the annual report as well. Contrast the highly promoted tax dodge schemes with their glossy brochures and extensive advertising with the companies Lynch really likes, dull organisations that grow their profits steadily, unnoticed by Wall Street brokers until the share price has already increased 10 times over. Some of Lynch's favourite companies don't even have any photos at all in their report, going for a simple black and white text document that just sticks to the facts about expenditure and strategy. Lynch feels as if these companies actually feel themselves employed by the shareholders, not for themselves. Such companies would rather buy back their own stock and inflate the EPS than spend money on frivolities.

Peter's Principle #18
What efficient market? Lynch loves industries Wall Street is ignoring, for here is where the real bargains are. Giant conglomerates have a hundred analysts watching their every move, because they are so popular they are often bought up to silly price earnings ratios though, it is the whole phenomenon of the market buying what they are familiar with, rather than what is good. Savings and Loan companies went out of fashion for a while in America, because a few crooked entrepreneurial types bought a few out and got into a whole lot of trouble making vast loans to their mates for speculative commercial real estate. The result was a series of spectacular failures that ruined the image of the whole industry. Most brokerages stopped looking at S&Ls altogether, and nearly every one of them was sold down. For Lynch this was great, he realised that the actions of these 1980s Christopher Skase types had not damaged the industry as a whole, certainly it meant absolutely nothing to the earnings of many of these companies. As a result Lynch was able to make quite a few wonderful aquisitions of solid companies with excellent histories that paid great dividends, and he waited a while for the hubbub to calm down and for the industry to get noticed by Wall Street again. Warren Buffett also likes this technique, he bought American Express after a scandalous one-off fraud perpetrated against the company, which led to a massive sell-off in AMEX. If an event doesn't hurt the long-term earnings of a company, and it won't go broke as a result of this hit, then obviously a big selloff is a good time to pick up a bargain.

Peter's Principle #19
This chapter talks about Lynch's strategy with cyclical stocks. Cyclicals can be a great way to make a buck if you buy them at the bottom, so it helps to look for opportunity in depressed stocks, rather than think of all the reasons why a cyclical is going to take losses. When cyclical stocks are so crushed by the economy that it seems things could not possibly get any worse, cyclicals usually hit their bottom. Lynch goes on to talk about PE ratios of cyclicals, advising that the time to buy these is when their PE is at a historic high, because Wall Street has caught on to cyclicals and often begins to discount them before the market as a whole tops. When a cyclical is sitting on a very low PE, along side record profits that have grown for many years, the market is anticipating a downturn. When a cyclical reaches a high PE on very low earnings, the price may be ready for an upturn because earnings will be at or near their nadir.

Peter's Principle #20
This chapter deals with utilities, especially nuclear power providers who suffer a temporary setback (like General Public Utilities, once proud owners of Three Mile Island Unit Two), but also other power utilities such as Consolidated Edison, who made massive losses as the price of oil skyrocketed in the 70s energy crisis, and yet regulators refused to allow the company to pass on the price to energy consumers. Although regulators can be a real burdon on utilities, they are also their guardian angels, trying to prevent them from going entirely out of business, as long as people still need electricity the government regulators will not allow the company to fold. As a result utilities can take massive hits in the share price, but in all but a very rare few there is a support level from which they bounce back, often very spectacularly several years after the event. Lynch quotes some specialist utility analysts who have identified four distinct stages in a utility crash and recovery.
Stage one: disaster. Either the cost of fuel has gone through the roof or a major accident has occurred, a huge selloff follow, where the utility may fall to 20 to 30 percent of book value in one or two years. Those who regard utilities as safe bottom draw blue chips usually get something of a shock if their once-a-decade examination of their portfolio happens to coincide with this period.
Stage two: crisis management. An austerity budget is adopted and the dividend is reduced or eliminated. Costs are cut to the point that the company can survive the disaster. At this point Wall Street isn't paying attention any more, and stock prices remain very low.
Stage three: financial stabilisation. The company, now as lean and mean as it will ever get can now turn a profit on the cash it receives from its bill-paying customers. Share prices by now have doubled, they are selling at 60 to 70% of book value while still reflecting great value in the eyes of typical "value investors".
Stage four: recovery. The company can now once again make a profit and pay a dividend. Shares now sell at full book value. Where it goes from here depends a lot on how regulators allow it to pass on costs to customers and the reception from the capital markets, because the company needs capital to expand.

Peter's Principle #21
When governments in democratic countries privatise public companies, they nearly always offer such attractive terms that shareholders are almost guaranteed to make great profits. All over the world, in Britain, Mexico, France, Greece, Chile, Hong Kong and even America (not as many in USA as you'd expect, all of their great companies are already private), IPOs of major public corporations almost always pay off. Often these stocks are offered at well below book value, and with attractive instalment payment plans. As we all know all about Telstra 1, I suppose I don't need to elaborate do I?
At the end of the book, Lynch writes 25 Golden Rules of investing:
(Which is interesting because I count 26)

taken from :

April 17, 2016

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December 15, 2015

89 Awesome Value Investing Quotes From Walter Schloss

  1. We do not spend a great deal of time talking to management
  2. I helped Ben with the third edition of Security Analysis, published in 1951
  3. When you buy a depressed company it’s not going to go up right after you buy it, believe me
  4. Sell is tough. It’s the worst, it’s the most difficult thing of all
  5. You never get the high and you never get the low
  6. Each year we buy stocks and they go up, we sell them and then we try to buy something cheaper
  7. My first job at Graham-Newman was to prepare the annual report for that 10th year
  8. I agree with Warren to keep it simple and not use higher mathematics in your analysis
  9. You have to be a little aware of the emotions of the people who have invested with you
  10. Warren is a very good judge of people and he’s a very good judge of businesses
  11. Ben’s emphasis was on protecting his expectation of profit with minimum risk
  12. You know, people tend to like to buy companies that are doing well
  13. We like to buy stocks which we feel are undervalued and then we have to have the guts to buy more when they go down
  14. My job was to find stocks that were undervalued
  15. Ben was really a contrarian but he didn’t use those terms because he was really buying value
  16. You have to invest the way that’s comfortable for you
  17. Fear and greed tend to affect one’s judgement
  18. By setting up Berkshire Hathaway, Warren has done everything very rationally
  19. I found that it was much better to look at the figures rather than people
  20. If the stock goes down we want to buy more
  21. Basically, we try to buy value expressed in the differential between its price and what we think its worth
  22. One has to know more about a company if one buys earnings
  23. Ben was a very simple straightforward man with a brilliant quick mind
  24. Ben didn’t want to lose money. He had had a rough time during the depression
  25. Some kinds of stocks are easier to analyse than others
  26. Book values have some good and some bad features
  27. I don’t have a ticker-tape machine in my office
  28. Try to establish the value of a company
  29. People don’t like to buy things that are going down
  30. I liked the results of the profits in the markets
  31. Enjoy your work and have ethical standards
  32. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings
  33. Buy stocks where the outlook is not good
  34. I have been around a long time and Wall Street has changed a lot
  35. You have to have patience in this field
  36. The market is a very emotional place that appeals to fear and greed
  37. Most look at earnings and earnings potential, well I can’t get into that game
  38. Look for companies that do not have a lot of debt
  39. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you
  40. You never really know a stock until you own it
  41. I like the idea of company-paid dividends
  42. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgement
  43. Earnings can change dramatically. Usually assets change slowly
  44. Timidity prompted by past failures causes investors to miss the most important bull markets
  45. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it
  46. Look at companies selling at new lows
  47. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value
  48. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately
  49. Yes, Warren [Buffett] has done very well
  50. Ben was a very simple straightforward man with a brilliant quick mind
  51. Ben didn’t want to lose money. He had had a rough time during the Depression
  52. Ben was a great believer in buying a diversified group of securities, so that he limited his risk
  53. We basically followed the idea of buying comapnies selling below working-capital — at two thirds of working-capital
  54. This is a business. Like any other business
  55. I was in Graham’s office the day he bought GEICO. Warren owns one-third of the stock today
  56. Graham liked the idea of protection on the downside
  57. One of the tricks of this business is, keep your losses down
  58. I’m not very good on timing. In fact, I’ve stayed away from it
  59. You have to have confidence in what you’re doing
  60. Stockbrokers aren’t too interested in a stock you can sit there for five years with
  61. When I buy a stock, I have kind of an idea where I want to sell it
  62. Our average holding period is four years
  63. I’m a passive investor. There are people who are very aggressive; they try to buy companies
  64. Making a decision to sell is the most difficult thing we do
  65. All the publicity about value investing – it’s become a very popular thing
  66. We don’t put the same amount of money in each stock
  67. We may buy a little bit of a stock, to get our feet wet and get a feeling for it
  68. Managements, you know, often think of themselves
  69. A lot of companies have lots of assets tied up in plant and equipment. Well, is it old plant, or is it new plant?
  70. If the market is so cheap, you want to get something with a little more zip in it, or potential
  71. We get a feeling, if we can, about what we think the company is worth
  72. If there are not too many value stocks that I can find, the market isn’t all that cheap
  73. If the market were way over priced, I wouldn’t own any stocks
  74. Remember that a share of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper
  75. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise
  76. Be sure that debt does not exceed 100% of the equity
  77. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move
  78. Don’t sell on bad news
  79. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgement
  80. Try to look for weaknesses in your thinking
  81. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision
  82. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to sell
  83. Before selling, try to re-evaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in realtion to its book value
  84. Be aware of the level of the stock market. Are yields low and PE ratios high?
  85. I find it helpful to buy near the low of the last few years
  86. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have in connection with the purchase and sale of stocks
  87. Devise a simple strategy so you can sleep at night
  88. Make sure you have the courage to stay true to your convictions and not let the market affect your emotions

taken from here

November 30, 2015

Daftar Group Emiten BEI

taken from stockbit, post from repento :

posting disimpan untuk remainder pribadi tentang emiten & group masing

Daftar Group dan kenaikan/penurunan harga sahamnya dari 1 jan 2014-13 Des 2014

$BMRI 7850~10750 = 36.94%
$BBRI 7250~11650 = 60.69%
$BBNI 3950~6000 = 51.90%
$BBTN 870~1170 = 34.48%
$AGRO 118~108 = -8.47%
$WIKA 1580~3345 = 111.71%
$ADHI 1510~3080 = 103.97%
$PTPP 1160~3325 = 186.64%
$WSKT 405~1220 = 201.23%
$SMGR 14150~16525 = 16.78%
$SMBR 330~387 = 17.27%
$TLKM 2150~2825 = 31.40%
$PGAS 4475~6000 = 34.08%
$JSMR 4725~6900 = 46.03%
$GIAA 496~605 = 21.98%
$KAEF 590~1425 = 141.53%
$INAF 153~372 = 143.14%
$ELSA 330~660 = 100.00%
$PTBA 10200~12950 = 26.96%
$TINS 1081~1185 = 9.62%
$ANTM 1090~970 = -11.01%
$KRAS 495~480 = -3.03%

$BJBR 890~775 = -12.92%
$BJTM 375~460 = 22.67%
$PJAA 1090~1550 = 42.20%

$ASII 6800~7175 = 5.51%
$AUTO 3650~3800 = 4.11%
$BNLI 1260~1510 = 19.84%
$UNTR 19000~17100 = -10.00%
$AALI 25100~23675 = -5.68%
$ASGR 1670~1950 = 16.77%
$TURI 530~600 = 13.21%
$HERO 2425~2460 = 1.44%

$SRTG 4800~4935 = 2.81%
$TBIG 5800~9550 = 64.66%
$ADRO 1090~1025 = -5.96%
$MPMX 1280~850 = -33.59%
$PALM 360~498 = 38.33%
$BEKS 84~79 = -5.95%
$MITI 297~188 = -36.70%

$ASSA 280~177 = -36.79%
$DSNG 2050~3750 = 82.93%

6.Grup SSIA
$SSIA 560~1075 = 91.96%
$NRCA 670~1205 = 79.85%

$BBCA 9600~13250 = 38.02%
$AHAP 168~210 = 25.00%
$TOWR 2750~4100 = 49.09%

$INDF 6600~6550 = -0.76%
$ICBP 10200~11700 = 14.71%
$ROTI 1020~1300 = 27.45%
$FAST 1900~2085 = 9.74%
$DNET 800~875 = 9.38%
$LSIP 1930~1945 = 0.78%
$SIMP 780~735 = -5.77%
$IMAS 4900~3140 = -35.92%
$IPOL 107~140 = 30.84%

$CTRA 750~1285 = 71.33%
$CTRS 1310~2935 = 124.05%
$CTRP 620~870 = 40.32%
$MTLA 380~470 = 23.68%
$MTDL 285~620 = 117.54%
$TMPO 158~128 = -18.99%

$MLPL 360~895 = 148.61%
$LPKR 910~1100 = 20.88%
$LPCK 4875~10600 = 117.44%
$GMTD 8300~6700 = -19.28%
$MPPA 1940~3600 = 85.57%
$LPPF 11000~15200 = 38.18%
$NOBU 590~765 = 29.66%
$LPGI 3275~4400 = 34.35%
$LPLI 480~665 = 38.54%
$LPPS 194~221 = 13.92%
$LPIN 5000~6200 = 24.00%
$KBLV 580~2495 = 330.17%
$LINK 1600~5200 = 225.00%
$MLPT 1010~1020 = 0.99%
$SILO 9500~14600 = 53.68%

$BSDE 1290~1785 = 38.37%
$PLIN 2000~3000 = 50.00%
$DUTI 4475~4650 = 3.91%
$SMAR 7850~7950 = 1.27%
$GEMS 2175~2000 = -8.05%
$DSSA 13500~12900 = -4.44%
$INKP 1400~1120 = -20.00%
$TKIM 1376~905 = -34.23%
$BSIM 240~288 = 20.00%

$BHIT 340~291 = -14.41%
$BMTR 1900~1415 = -25.53%
$MNCN 2625~2375 = -9.52%
$MSKY 2000~1445 = -27.75%
$CMNP 3350~3130 = -6.57%
$KPIG 1310~1195 = -8.78%
$BCAP 1340~1010 = -24.63%
$BABP 120~87 = -27.50%
$IATA 81~86 = 6.17%

$EMTK 5550~6000 = 8.11%
$SCMA 2625~3365 = 28.19%

$KLBF 1250~1775 = 42.00%
$EPMT 4000~2850 = -28.75%
$IGAR 295~324 = 9.83%

$MERK 189000~157000 = -16.93%

16.Taisho Farmasi
$SQBI 314000~315000 = 0.32%

$PNBN 660~1110 = 68.18%
$PNLF 195~293 = 50.26%
$PNIN 670~765 = 14.18%
$AMAG 198~239 = 20.71%
$PANS 4000~4995 = 24.88%
$CFIN 400~439 = 9.75%
$VRNA 92~82 = -10.87%

$MAYA 2750~1880 = -31.64%
$SRAJ 250~226 = -9.60%
$SONA 4800~4100 = -14.58%

19.Coutts&Co+Abn Amro+Barclay Bank
$ABDA 4000~6150 = 53.75%
$MREI 2675~5000 = 86.92%

$BDMN 3775~4450 = 17.88%
$ADMF 8100~7300 = -9.88%

$VICO 119~128 = 7.56%
$BVIC 125~121 = -3.20%

$HDFA 230~210 = -8.70%
$ABMM 3000~2575 = -14.17%

$BWPT 1106~402 = -63.65%
$SMMT 1686~1770 = 4.98%
$META 255~200 = -21.57%
$TAXI 1460~1225 = -16.10%
$RMBA 570~515 = -9.65%
$FORU 167~690 = 313.17%

$BTPN 4300~4170 = -3.02%
$AMRT 450~500 = 11.11%
$MIDI 530~570 = 7.55%
$TRIO 1290~1140 = -11.63%
$GLOB 1250~1010 = -19.20%
$DOID 92~210 = 128.26%
$ESSA 2375~2920 = 22.95%
$MASA 390~415 = 6.41%

25.Agro Manunggal
$ASRI 430~580 = 34.88%
$BEST 445~730 = 64.04%

$MDLN 390~515 = 32.05%
$MDRN 770~620 = -19.48%

$JRPT 800~1030 = 28.75%
$JKON 550~850 = 54.55%

$GAMA 88~50 = -43.18%
$BACA 88~87 = -1.14%

$PANR 390~500 = 28.21%
$PDES 136~184 = 35.29%
$WEHA 235~265 = 12.77%

$BUMI 300~70 = -76.67%
$BRAU 186~68 = -63.44%
$BORN 174~50 = -71.26%
$BRMS 199~299 = 50.25%
$DEWA 50~50 = 0.00%
$ENRG 70~105 = 50.00%
$ELTY 50~50 = 0.00%
$BTEL 50~50 = 0.00%
$BNBR 50~50 = 0.00%
$VIVA 275~495 = 80.00%
$MDIA 1380~2400 = 73.91%

$PTRO 1150~1000 = -13.04%
$INDY 590~535 = -9.32%
$MBSS 1010~1000 = -0.99%

$APEX 2550~3100 = 21.57%
$OCAS 159~135 = -15.09%

33.Gajah Tunggal
$GJTL 1680~1335 = -20.54%
$MAPI 5500~5325 = -3.18%
$ADMG 220~169 = -23.18%
$KBLI 142~157 = 10.56%

$ALIM 300~266 = -11.33%
$INAI 290~345 = 18.97%
$BMAS 285~340 = 19.30%

35.Barito Pacific
$BRPT 410~313 = -23.66%
$TPIA 2975~3000 = 0.84%

36.SIam Cement
$KIAS 155~144 = -7.10%
$KOIN 275~430 = 56.36%

$TRIS 400~360 = -10.00%
$CINT 330~364 = 10.30%

$ARNA 820~920 = 12.20%
$CSAP 180~610 = 238.89%

$SKBM 480~970 = 102.08%
$SKLT 180~250 = 38.89%

$PNSE 580~540 = -6.90%
$PUDP 480~431 = -10.21%

41.Artha Graha
$JIHD 1330~1120 = -15.79%
$SCBD 3340~1800 = -46.11%
$INPC 91~86 = -5.49%

42.Wisma Bina Surya

43 Sungai Budi Group :

44. Gudang Garam Group :

November 16, 2015

Professional (joke)

Para Perampok Professional ::
Sewaktu perampokan di Guangzhou, China, perampok bank berteriak kesemua orang di bank: "Jangan Bergerak. Uang ini Milik Negara, Hidupmu milikmu." Semua orang di bank menunduk dengan tenang. Ini yang disebut "Konsep Merubah Pikiran" Merubah cara berpikir yang konvensional.

Ketika seorang wanita berbaring di meja secara profokatif, perampok berteriak padanya "Beradablah, Ini perampokan, bukan pemerkosaan!" Ini yang disebut "Professional" fokus hanya kepada apa yang kamu dilatih untuk..

Ketika Perampok kembali kerumah, perampok yang lebih muda (lulusan s2) berkata kepada perampok yang tua (lulusan sd): "Bang, ayo kita hitung berapa yang kita dapat." Perampok yang lebih tua bilang "Bego banget lo. Duitnya banyak gitu lama pasti ngitungnya. Malem ini lihat aja di TV bakal bilang berapa yang kita rampok dari bank!" Ini yang disebut "Pengalaman." Sekarang pengalaman lebih penting dari gelar..!

Setelah perampok pergi, manajer bank bilang pada supervisor bank untuk menelpon polisi secepatnya. Tetapi supervisor berkata: "Tunggu! Ayo kita ambil $10juta dollar dari bank untuk kita dan tambahkan ke $70juta dollar yang sudah diambil dari bank".
Ini yang disebut "Sambil Berenang Minum Air." Merubah keadaan tak baik menjadi keuntungan anda!

Supervisor berkata: " Akan sangat bagus bila ada perampokan setiap bulan."
Ini yang disebut "Membunuh Kebosanan" Kebahagiaan personal lebih penting dari pekerjaan anda.

Keesokan harinya, Berita TV melaporkan bahwa $100juta telah dicuri dari bank. Perampok menghitung dan menghitung, tetapi mereka hanya dapat $20juta dollar. Perampok sangat marah dan komplain "Kita meresikokan hidup kita dan hanya dapat $20juta dollar. Pekerja Bank mengambil $80juta dollar dengan santai. Sepertinya mendingan menjadi teredukasi daripada perampok!"
Ini yang disebut "Pengetahuan bernilai lebih banyak dari emas" Manajer bank tersenyum dan bahagia karena kekalahan di main saham dapat di bayarkan oleh perampokan yang terjadi. Ini yang disebut "Mengambil kesempatan." Berani mengambil resiko!

Jadi siapakah pencuri Sejati dan lebih professional disini?

Sumber : anonim